Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally in Saginaw, Michigan, U.S., October 3, 2024. Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally and concert in Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S. October 28, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Former President Donald Trump has defeated Vice President Kamala Harris to win the White House, which could broadly impact taxpayers — but the details remain unclear, according to policy experts.
Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, will be a key priority for the president-elect in 2025. The law brought sweeping changes, including lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit and bigger estate and gift tax exemption, among other provisions.
Those individual tax breaks will sunset after 2025 without action from Congress, which could trigger higher taxes for more than 60% of taxpayers, according to the Tax Foundation. However, Trump wants to fully extend expiring TCJA provisions.
Plus, most of Trump’s tax policy requires Congressional approval, which could be challenging, depending on control of the Senate and House of Representatives and support within the Republican party.
While Republicans secured a Senate majority, control of the House remains uncertain. If Democrats flip the House, we could see “more gridlock” in Congress, which could stall Trump’s agenda, Gleckman explained.
The ‘budget math’ will be harder in 2025
Tax negotiations could also be tough amid growing concerns about the federal budget deficit, according to Erica York, senior economist and research manager with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.
“The budget math is a lot harder this time around than it was back in 2017,” with higher interest rates and a bigger baseline budget deficit, she said. The deficit topped $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.
Fully extending TCJA provisions could decrease federal revenue by $3.5 trillion to $4 trillion over the next decade, depending on the scoring model, according to the Tax Foundation.