TOPSHOT – Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a … [+]
Wealthy investors are overwhelmingly stating their plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, according to a recent UBS survey. We must point out that polls and surveys have often undercounted support for Trump from people embarrassed or unwilling to publicly show their support him. On a more positive note for the former President, he leads Harris with business owners by a six-point margin.
Who Was Included In The UBS Survey?
In August, UBS surveyed 971 investors who had at least $1 million of investable assets. While I’d be surprised if many people who participated in the survey would describe themselves as “wealthy,” a million-dollar-plus net worth puts you well above average in the net worth category. The survey respondents self-identified as 38% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 26% Independent.
To put that in perspective, according to Gallup, 29% of Americans identify as Republican, 40% identify as Independent, and 30% identify as Democrats (as of September 3-15 polling).
Harris is favored over Trump at a rate of 60% to 40% by Independents.
Will Feelings About The Economy Sway Voters?
The results of the UBS survey appear to reflect more positive feelings about the economy, which was listed by 84% of respondents as their top issue this election. UBS also said that investors are more optimistic about the stock market returns over the next six months than they were in 2020. Of course, in 2020 (during the Trump presidency) the economy was dealing with shutdowns due to COVID. Both 2020 and 2024 have been great years for investors overall.
Social Security And Millionaire Voters
Harris was favored by 54% of respondents for her policies on Social Security, and 60% believed she would do the best job with healthcare. Regardless of who our next President will be, Social Security will need reform, new funding, or, more likely, a combination of both. If nothing is done, the Social Security trust fund is expected to run out of money by 2035, at which point benefits would likely be cut.
Trump has thrown out concepts of policies that could benefit current retirees in the short term but further strain the financial viability of the Social Security system over time. Harris has vowed to ensure the resources are there to provide the Social Security benefits that Americans have been promised.
Will Investors Change Portfolios Before The Election?
Historically, the stock market hates uncertainty, and with a close presidential election, we are facing uncertainty on many fronts. As a fiduciary financial planner, I must point out that making major changes to your investment portfolio based on whether your political candidate is likely to win the election is generally not a great idea.
According to the UBS survey, a whopping 77% of millionaire investors are considering portfolio changes before election night. This is up substantially when compared with the 63% who said they were expecting to make changes in 2020. Thirty-four percent of respondents said they were considering increasing their investments, while another 34% said they were considering increasing cash holdings. Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, moving to cash will be less rewarding going forward than it has been the past few years and interest rates on bank accounts and other fixed-income assets have been dropping as the Fed has cut rates.
Be careful when making concrete plans for policy proposals from candidates that may or may not come to fruition. Even if your candidate is elected, many of the policy proposals, or even mentioned concepts of proposals, are a long way from making it through Congress and the Senate. That being said, it is still an idea as part of a proactive tax plan to be prepared if tax laws change or if other new laws affect your industry or income.